Long‐term changes in recruitment of age‐0 Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and environmental conditions around Japan

Recruitment of age‐0 Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) from 1952 to 2014 was examined by a sequential regime shift detection method. The regime shifts in recruitment were detected in 1957, 1972, 1980, 1994 and 2009. The durations of regime shift ranged from 8–15 years and averaged 13.0 years. In both the total (1952–2014) and data rich (1980–2014) periods, negative relationships were found between recruitment and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in autumn, and positive relationships were found between recruitment and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern part of the East China Sea, in the southwestern part of the Sea of Japan, and in the waters off Shikoku and Tokai in summer and autumn. The 1994 and 2009 regime shifts in recruitment occurred in the same years as shifts in SST anomalies in the northern part of the East China Sea in summer. These results suggest that the ocean conditions in the northern part of the East China Sea are closely related to recruitment of Pacific bluefin tuna, and that the warmer conditions result in higher recruitment of the species.