Natural mortality augments population fluctuations of forage fish

Forage fish are a vital part of marine ecosystems, partly by supporting some of the largest fisheries worldwide, but also due to their role in food webs as prey for larger fish and other predators. One of the unresolved questions about forage fish dynamics is the causes of their significant temporal fluctuations. These fluctuations are often attributed to changes in environmental conditions, but direct correlations have proven hard to find. Here, we show how time‐varying predation mortality additionally plays a substantial role in forage fish population fluctuations. By analysing 10 stocks that have estimates of natural mortality changes through time, we find that natural mortality on average increases as population biomass declines towards a trough, and to a lesser degree decreases, when their biomass is growing towards a peak. While depensatory mortality was dominant on average in biomass dynamics leading up to peaks or troughs, some of the stocks exhibited compensatory mortality emphasizing variation between stocks. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of natural mortality and productivity is generally higher than fishing mortality. The results underscore the importance of top‐down control on the dynamics of forage fish. We conclude that a holistic ecosystem analysis is required for a better ecological understanding of forage fish dynamics.