基于生态足迹模型的资源型城市生态承载力评价——以黑龙江省大庆市为例

目的]综合分析黑龙江省大庆市生态承载力时空变化及影响因素,为大庆市与同类资源型城市生态优化提供科学依据。方法]使用生态足迹模型,分析近30 a来大庆市及各行政区生态承载力时空变化。使用PLS模型定量筛选大庆市生态承载力影响因子。结果] 1986—2016年大庆市表征状态均为生态赤字,除市区外,各地区生态赤字均有不同程度升高;剔除能源消耗外部性造成的影响,大庆市生态安全等级较低的区域呈现扩大趋势;各地区生态协调系数均出现不同程度下降,除林甸县与杜尔伯特地区外,其他地区生态协调能力较差;研究期内,农业固定资产投入额度、GDP年增长率、第三产业比重、社会消费品零售总额、农业总产值5种因子对大庆市生态承载力影响极显著。结论]当前大庆市生态承载力呈现出压力较大,空间分布不均,影响因素多样的特点,在制定提高生态承载力相关措施时,要注重因地制宜,切合实际。

Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity of Resource Cities Based on Ecological Footprint Model -A Case Study at Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province

Objective] The temporal and spatial changes of ecological carrying capacity and its influence factors in Daqing City of Heilongjiang Province were analyzed comprehensively in order to provide a scientific basis for the ecological environment management of Daqing City and similar resource cities.Methods] The ecological footprint model was used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of ecological carrying capacity in Daqing City and other administrative regions in nearly 30 a. The PLS model was applied to screen the influencing factors of ecological carrying capacity in Daqing City quantitatively.Results] In the past 1986-2016 years, the ecological status of the study area showed an ecological deficit. Except for the urban area, the level of ecological deficit in all regions presented an upward trend. Although the influences of externality of energy consumption were eliminated, the area of low ecological security grade in Daqing City still showed expanding trend; the ecological coordination coefficient of each region has declined to varying degrees. Except for Lindian County and Dulbert, other regions were in a state of poor coordination. During the study period, five factors, including the amount of investment in agricultural fixed assets, the growth rate of GDP, the proportion of the total industry, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the total output value of agriculture, had significant impacts on the ecological carrying capacity of Daqing City.Conclusion] At present, the ecological carrying capacity of Daqing City is characterized by high pressure, uneven spatial distribution and diverse factors. When making measures to increase ecological carrying capacity, we must pay attention to local conditions and conform to reality.