塔里木河干流上游区WaSSI-C生态水文模型的适用性评价

水碳耦合模型能够为干旱区水碳资源综合管理提供重要的工具支持。以塔里木河干流上游区为研究对象，在深入分析WaSSI-C模型（Water Supply Stress Index-Carbon model）理论方法和运行机理的基础上，结合研究区自然地理环境特征，补充冰川融化计算模块，以增强模型在研究区的适用性。在此基础上，将研究时段划分为率定期（2000-2009年）和验证期（2010-2015年），利用实测的径流数据和MODIS数据产品的蒸散（ET）和总生态系统生产力（GEP）数据，以相关系数(R²)和效率系数（NS）为主要统计指标，探讨了不同时期WaSSI-C模型在研究区的适用性。流域总径流在率定期和验证期对比验证的R²分别为0.72和0.68，NS为0.71和0.67；ET在率定期和验证期对比验证的R²分别为0.60和0.64，NS为0.60和0.56；GEP率定期和验证期对比验证的R²分别为0.68和0.61，NS为0.66和0.69；除ET在验证期的NS为0.56以外，模拟结果的2个评价指标均保持在0.6及以上，可见模型能够很好地模拟塔里木河干流上游区水碳资源的动态变化。

Applicability evaluation of WaSSI-C model in the upstream region of the mainstream of Tarim River

Water-carbon coupling model can provide important implemental support for the integrated management of water and carbon resources in arid areas. The upstream region of the mainstream of Tarim River was selected as the research area. Based on the study of the theoretical methods and operating mechanism of the WaSSI-C model (Water Supply Stress Index-Carbon model) and according to the characteristics of natural geography and the environment in the study area, the calculation module for the glacier melting had been added to improve the applicability of the model. On this basis, the study period was divided into calibration period (2000-2009) and the validation period (2010-2015), and then we used the measured runoff data and MODIS evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) products to explore the applicability of WaSSI-C model in different locations of the study area. The R² values of calibration and verification periods for the total runoff of the river basin were 0.72 and 0.68, respectively, and NS was 0.71 and 0.67, respectively; The R² for ET were 0.60 and 0.64 for the two periods, respectively, NS was 0.60 and 0.56, respectively; The R² for GEP were 0.68 and 0.61 and NS were 0.66 and 0.69 for the two periods, respectively. The two evaluation indexes of the simulation results were all maintained at 0.6 and above, except for the NS of verification period for ET. Therefore, the model can well simulate the dynamic changes of water and carbon resources in the upstream area of the mainstream of Tarim River.