基于CA-Markov模型的宁夏沿黄生态经济带土地利用变化及模拟研究

目的]研究宁夏沿黄生态经济带2009—2017年土地利用变化特点,并模拟2025年土地利用空间格局,为宁夏沿黄生态经济带土地开发、利用与保护提供引导,为国土空间规划编制提供参考。方法]基于时间尺度和空间尺度,对宁夏沿黄生态经济带2009—2017年各类用地变化情况进行了分析,计算得出了各类用地转移概率矩阵,并基于CA-Markov模型,对自然发展情景、土地规划情景、耕地和生态保护情景下宁夏沿黄生态经济带2025年土地利用格局进行了模拟研究。结果] 2009—2017年,宁夏沿黄生态经济带土地利用整体呈现出耕地、其他农用地及各类建设用地不断增加,园地、林地、草地、水域及自然保留地均有所减少的特点;除水域、其他建设用地外,其他各类用地转为城乡建设用地概率普遍较高,特别是耕地转为城乡建设用地概率最高,达到10.65%。结论]在自然发展、土地规划、耕地和环境保护3种情景下,宁夏沿黄生态经济带2025年土地利用结构仍然以牧草地、耕地、自然保留地为主,但随着城镇化进程加快和基础设施持续完善,城乡建设用地和交通水利用地增加幅度较大。

A Study of Land Use Change and Simulation of a Ningxia Eco-economic Belt Along Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model

Objective] The characteristics of land use change from 2009 to 2017 were analyzed, and the spatial pattern of land use in 2025 of Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River was simulated in oreder to provide guidance for land development, utilization and protection of the studied area, and to provide reference for the preparation of land space planning.Methods] Based on the time scale and spatial scale, this study analyzed the changes in land use from 2009 to 2017, calculated the probability matrix for land transfer, and used the CA-Markov model to simulate the land use pattern in 2025 of Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River based on natural development, land planning, cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios.Results] All kinds of construction and the cultivated land and other agricultural land exhibited a continuous increase in the Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River from 2009 to 2017, meanwhile, the garden land, forest land, grassland, water area, natural reservations were reduced. Except for water area and other construction land, the conversion probability of other types of land to urban and rural construction land were generally higher, especially the conversion probability of cultivated land to urban and rural construction land was the highest, reaching 10.65%.Conclusion] Based on the three scenarios, the land use structure of the Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River in 2025 is still dominated by grassland, arable land and natural reservations. However, with the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the increase in the land used for urban and rural construction, transportation and irrigation works is much more.