基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的江苏省生态承载力评价及障碍因素诊断

目的]以江苏省为研究对象,依据其资源禀赋对2001—2015年的生态承载力进行评价,并对其障碍度进行诊断,为促进该区域生态承载力的提升提供科学依据。方法]利用DPSIR模型构建评价指标体系,通过熵权法对指标权重进行赋值,采用TOPSIS分析法和障碍度模型进行实证分析。结果]江苏省生态承载力呈N形的演变态势,综合贴近度处于"差"状态;从分类指标情况看,压力、驱动力和响应子系统评价指数呈不同程度的上升趋势,影响子系统的评价指数呈下降趋势,而状态子系统的评价指数保持稳定;从障碍度诊断结果看,响应子系统是影响江苏省生态承载力的主要障碍因素。结论]江苏省的社会、经济和生态的耦合协调度较低,应从加大环境财政的投入、完善基础设施建设、加强生态文明制度建设和拓展生态发展空间等方面提出改进策略。

Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in Jiangsu Province Based on DPSIR-TOPSIS Model

Objective] Taking Jiangsu Province as the research object, the ecological carrying capacity during 2001-2005 was evaluated according to its resource endowment and the degree of obstacle was diagnosed in order to provide scientific basis for the promotion of ecological bearing capacity in the area.Methods] The DPSIR was used to construct and establish index system and then the index weights were assigned by the entropy weight method, the TOPSIS analysis method and obstacle degree model were applied for empirical analysis.Results] The ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province indicated a "N" shaped trend evolution, and the comprehensive closeness was at the poor stage. From the perspective of classification indicators, the pressure, driving and response subsystem evaluation index experienced different levels of upward trend while the evaluation index of subsystem was a downward trend, station subsystem remains stable. From the diagnostic result of obstacle degree, the response subsystem is one of the main factors that affect the ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province.Conclusion] The coupling and coordination degree of society, economy and ecology is relatively low in Jiangsu Province. It should put forward increasing investment in environmental finance, improving infrastructure construction, strengthening the construction of ecological civilization system and expanding the space for ecological development, so as to promote the improvement of ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province.