城镇-农业-生态协调的高原湖泊流域土地利用优化

为了解高原湖泊流域土地利用布局现状,探究在"城镇-农业-生态"协调下的高原湖泊流域土地利用空间优化配置方案,该文以抚仙湖流域为例,基于3S技术,运用MCR-CLUE-S模型,研究流域城镇建设情景、农业开发情景、生态保护情景和综合优化情景4种模式下2030年国土空间的结构和布局,最终提出抚仙湖流域"城镇-农业-生态空间"协调下的土地利用空间优化分区。结果表明:1)2005、2010和2015年抚仙湖流域城镇空间呈上升趋势,农业空间呈下降趋势,生态空间先升后降,10 a间空间分布格局基本一致;2)以重要水源地、湖滨湿地和大面积自然林地为保护源,选取高程和坡度等8个阻力因子,采用最小累积阻力模型和累积耗费距离模型构建抚仙湖流域生态安全格局,以及有利于生态保护的"源"核心区、生态保护区、生态边缘区、农业开发区、农业边缘区和城镇建设区;3)以生态功能分区面积为约束条件,通过Markov模型结合CLUE-S模型模拟抚仙湖流域2030年城镇建设、农业开发和生态保护情景下"城镇-农业-生态空间"的优化布局。城镇建设情景综合考虑生活需要以及政策指导下以开发城镇空间为主导的"城镇-农业-生态空间"数量及空间结构的发展方向;农业开发情景控制城镇空间规模,开发部分生态空间潜力;生态保护情景下农业空间面积有所减少,城镇空间面积少量增加;4)抚仙湖流域2030年综合优化情景模式下,根据土地功能的不同,划为城镇空间、农业空间、生态空间、城镇-农业空间、城镇-生态空间、农业-生态空间和城镇-农业-生态空间,其中农业-生态空间最小,生态空间最大;5)通过分析4种情景下区域发展的特点,结合抚仙湖流域耕地保护、生态保护和经济社会发展等多种因素,认为综合情景方案更合理并更适合当地的发展,其他3种单要素情景方案可为综合情景方案的实施进行相关的补充和调整。研究结果可为抚仙湖流域国土空间规划和生态保护战略决策提供参考依据。

Land use optimization of plateau lake basin based on town-agriculture-ecological spatial coordination

Abstract: In order to understand the current situation of land use layout in the plateau lake basin and explore the optimal allocation of land use space in the plateau lake basin based on urban-agriculture-ecology coordination, the paper takes the Fuxian Lake Basin as an example, based on the 3S technology, and uses the MCR-CLUE-S model to study the structure and layout of town-agriculture-ecological space in 2030 under the four modes of urban construction scenario, cultivated land development scenario, ecological protection scenario and integrated optimization scenario in the Fuxian Lake Basin. Finally, the optimal allocation of land use space under the coordination of town-agriculture-ecological space in Fuxian Lake Basin is proposed. The results show: 1) From 2005 to 2015, in the Fuxian Lake Basin, the urban space is on the rise, the agricultural space is in a downward trend, and the ecological space is rising first and then decreasing. The spatial distribution pattern is basically the same in 10 years. 2) The paper selects important water source, lakeside wetland and large-scale natural forest land as protection sources, 8 resistance factors such as elevation and slope are selected. The minimum cumulative resistance model and the cumulative cost distance model are used to construct the ecological security pattern of the Fuxian Lake Basin, as well as the "source" core area, ecological protection area, ecological margin area, agricultural development area, agricultural fringe area and urban construction area which are conducive to ecological protection. 3) Taking the ecological functional partition area in the ecological security pattern as a constraint, based on the Markov model''s calculation of the number of land types, and simulating the town-agriculture-ecological space optimization layout in the urban construction scenario, agricultural development scenario and ecological protection scenario of the Fuxian Lake Basin in 2030 through the CLUE-S model. The urban construction scenario takes into account the current needs of life, and the development of the number and spatial structure of town-agriculture-ecological space led by the development of urban space under the guidance of policies; the agricultural development scenario controls the size of urban space and develops part of the ecological space potential; the area of agricultural space has decreased under the ecological protection scenario, and the urban space area has increased slightly. 4) In the 2030 comprehensive optimization scenario of the Fuxian Lake Basin, seven spatial types are classified according to different land functions: Urban space, agricultural space, ecological space, urban-agricultural space, urban-ecological space, agriculture-ecological space and town-agriculture-ecological space.There are large differences in various types of space: Agriculture - ecological space is minimal, ecological space is maximum. 5) By analyzing the advantages of regional development in four cases and combining with various factors such as cultivated land protection, ecological protection and socioeconomic development in the Fuxian Lake Basin, the study considers that the integrated scenario is more reasonable and more suitable for local development, while the other three single-element scenarios can complement and adjust the implementation of the integrated scenario. The research results provide reference for the decision-making of land space planning and ecological protection strategy in Fuxian Lake Basin.