Adjusted incidence risks of BSE in risk subpopulations of cattle in Japan |
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Authors: | Sugiura Katsuaki |
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Affiliation: | aAnimal Products Safety Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 1-2-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8950, Japan |
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Abstract: | Immediately after the detection of the first case of BSE in 2001, the Japanese government introduced active surveillance targeting fallen-stock and all cattle slaughtered for human consumption. By the end of 2004, four million animals were tested with rapid tests under the passive and active surveillance. As a result 13 additional cases were detected. I focused on the 1996 birth cohort, in which nine cases of BSE were detected during 2001–2004, and estimated the prevalence of BSE infection of that birth cohort using maximum-likelihood methods. Using the estimated prevalence of infection as an input variable, I calculated the adjusted incidence risk of BSE by different ages and risk subpopulations (clinical-suspects, fallen-stock, sick-slaughter and healthy-slaughter animals). The adjusted incidence risk of BSE in sick-slaughter animals (animals showing clinical signs not compatible with BSE when slaughtered for human consumption) was 18.7 and 4.5–78.4 times higher than the incidence risk in fallen-stock and healthy-slaughter animals, respectively. |
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Keywords: | Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) Incidence Prevalence Maximum-likelihood methods Surveillance Japan |
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