农业系统可持续度的随机模拟方法与实证分析

从系统学角度，对农业可持续发展的持续度的确定问题进行了定量化分析。首先利用功效函数评价和时间序列的随机模拟分析等方法，建立了农业可持续发展系统的持续度理论计算模型与模拟预测模型；在此基础上，对浙江省农业系统可持续性的定量化确定及模拟预测问题进行了实证分析。研究结果表明，文中提出的计算模型能比较好的适应农业系统随机不确定性等基本特征，实证研究结论也为浙江省进一步实施农业可持续发展战略提供有益的决策参考。

Stochastic simulation model and its application for sustainability degree of agricultural system

From the viewpoint of system science, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the problem about sustainability degree of agricultural sustainable development. First, by using efficacy function and stochastic simulation for time sequence, the theoretical computation models of sustainability degree for agricultural sustainable development system were set up. On the basis of this work, the practical analysis of problem on computation and simulation for agricultural system of Zhejiang Province was made. The research result shows that computation model can adapt to many basic characteristics such as stochastic indefiniteness of agricultural system. The conclusion may provide important references for decision-making for the strategy for agricultural sustainable development of Zhejiang Province.