灰色GM(1,1)及其残差修正模型在不同程度春旱发生年份预测中的应用

针对近年来临沂春旱发生频率和程度较前期有所增加的事实,利用临沂1971-2009年的降水资料,采用降水距平法进行春季干旱划分,在此基础上,利用灰色GM(1,1)及其残差修正模型分别建立当地轻度和中度以上春旱的预测模型。结果表明:轻度以上春旱模型以原始序列建模方程精度最高,而中度以上春旱模型则以3次残差序列模型的精度最高;分别用最佳轻度和中度以上GM(1,1)模型进行未来5个时刻的预测,得出下一次轻度春旱时间在2010年;而轻度和中度以上预测模型共同预测结果表明2018年临沂将发生中度以上程度的春旱,为将灾害损失降到最小,对此次春季旱情应引起高度重视,并提前做好防灾减灾应对措施。

Application of Grey GM (1,1) and Residual Correction Model in Prediction of Different Degree Spring Drought

In recent years,the frequency and extend of the spring drought occurrence increased in Linyi city.Based on the precipitation data of Linyi city in 1971-2009,spring drought degree was divided by precipitation departure method.The prediction model of spring drought degree was established by using the Grey GM（1,1） and Residual Correction Model.The results showed that the original sequence model equation had good precision for mild spring drought prediction,and the model based on the three times residual series had good precision for moderate and severe spring drought.The next mild spring drought might occur in 2010,the moderate and severe spring drought might occur in 2018 in Linyi.