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Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir
Authors:Constance A. Harrington  Peter J. Gould  J. Bradley St.Clair
Affiliation:1. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd Ave. SW, Olympia, WA 98512, USA;2. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;1. Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d’Altitude, Chamonix Mont-Blanc, France;2. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175, CNRS- Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE, 1919 Route de Mende, F-34293 Montpellier Cedex 05, France;3. Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Switzerland;4. University of Neuchatel, Institute of Geography, Neuchatel, Switzerland;5. Forest Dynamics Research Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland;6. Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, The Arctic University of Norway, TromsØ, Norway;7. Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91400 Orsay, France;8. INRA-Nancy University, UMR 1137, Forest Ecology & Ecophysiology, Champenoux, France;1. INRA – UR1052 Génétique et amélioration des fruits et légumes, Domaine Saint Maurice, Allée des Chénes – CS60094, 84143 Montfavet Cedex, France;2. INRA – Agroclim, Site Agroparc – Domaine Saint Paul, 84914 Avignon, France;3. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Equipe Bioflux, CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France;4. Department of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Pisa, Via del Borghetto 80, 56124 Pisa, Italy;5. Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Via Santa Cecilia, 3, 56127 Pisa, Italy;6. Department of Plant Breeding, CEBAS-CSIC, P.O. Box 164, 30100 Espinardo, Murcia, Spain;7. UMR AGAP – Campus CIRAD, TA A 96/03, Avenue Agropolis, F-34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France;1. Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich and East Malling Research, New Road, Kent ME19 6BJ, UK;2. James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK;3. University of Dundee at James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK;1. Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, 43 av. Charles Nicolle, 1082 Tunis, Tunisia;2. Laboratoire d’Amélioration de la Productivité de l’Olivier et des Arbres Fruitiers, Institut de l’Olivier, BP 1087, Sfax 3000, Tunisia;1. Oakville Experiment Station, Department of Viticulture and Enology, University of California Davis Oakville, CA 94562, USA;2. Centre for Horticulture, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AR, UK;3. Genetics and Crop Improvement Programme, East Malling Research,New Road, East Malling ME19 6BJ, UK;4. World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi 00100, Kenya;5. Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn 53113, Germany;1. University of Neuchatel, Institute of Geography, Neuchatel, Switzerland;2. WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Neuchatel, Switzerland;3. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Group Mountain Ecosystems, Davos, Switzerland;4. Agroscope, Research Division Plant-Production Systems, 1964 Conthey, Switzerland
Abstract:Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during mid-winter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling or forcing effectiveness differ by species so we combined our data and published information to develop new curves on the effectiveness of temperature for chilling and forcing. The new curves predict effectiveness over a wide range of temperatures and we suggest both functions may be operating at the same time. We present experimental data from 13 winter environments for 5 genotypes of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) and use them to test various assumptions of starting and stopping dates for accumulating chilling and forcing units and the relationship between budburst and the accumulation of chilling and forcing units. Chilling started too early to be effective in one treatment but the other 12 environments resulted in budburst from many combinations of chilling and forcing. Previous reports have suggested benefits or cancellations of effects from alternating day/night or periodic temperatures. Our simple models do not include these effects but nevertheless were effective in predicting relationships between chilling and forcing for treatments with a wide range of conditions. Overall, the date of budburst changed only slightly (+1 to ?11 days) across a wide range of treatments in our colder test environment (Olympia, WA, USA) but was substantially later (+29 days) in the warmest treatment in our warmer environment (Corvallis, OR, USA). An analysis of historical climate data for both environments predicted a wide range in date to budburst could result from the same mean temperature due to the relative weightings of specific temperatures in the chilling and forcing functions. In the absence of improved understanding of the basic physiological mechanisms involved in dormancy induction and release, we suggest that simple, universal functions be considered for modeling the effectiveness of temperature for chilling and forcing. Future research should be designed to determine the exact shape of the curves; data are particularly lacking at the temperature extremes. We discuss the implications of our data and proposed functions for predicting effects of climate change. Both suggest that the trend toward earlier budburst will be reversed if winter temperatures rise substantially.
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