Process-based modelling of the severity and impact of foliar pest attack on eucalypt plantation productivity under current and future climates |
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| Authors: | E.A. Pinkard M. Battaglia J. Bruce A. Leriche D.J. Kriticos |
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| Affiliation: | 1. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Private Bag 12, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;2. CSIRO Entomology, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;1. School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA;2. Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden;3. Federal University of Santa Catarina – UFSC, 89.520-000 Curitibanos, SC, Brazil;4. Instituto de Pesquisas e Estudos Florestais, Via Comendador Pedro Morganti, 3500 - Bairro Monte Alegre, Brazil;5. Department of Forest Sciences, University of São Paulo, 13400 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil;6. Department of Forest Science, São Paulo State University, 18600 Botucatu, SP, Brazil;1. Estación Fitopatolóxica do Areeiro, Deputación de Pontevedra, Subida a la Robleda s/n, E-36153 Pontevedra, Spain;2. Departamento de Producción Vegetal, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Campus Universitario, E-27002 Lugo, Spain;1. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2820 Faucette Dr., Campus Box 8001, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States;2. Department of Forest Science, Federal University of Lavras, Campus Universitario, Campus Box 3037, LEMAF, Lavras, Minas Gerais 37200-000, Brazil;3. Department of Forest Science, University of São Paulo, Av. Padua Dias 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil;4. Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 310 W Campus Dr, Campus Box 169, 24061 Blacksburg, VA, United States;5. Fibria Celulose S.A. Rod. Aracruz, B. Riacho, Aracruz 29192-000, Brazil;1. Instituto de Pesquisas e Estudos Florestais (IPEF), Avenida Pádua Dias 11, Caixa Postal 530, CEP 13400-970, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil;2. Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias – Campus de Jaboticabal (UNESP – FCAV), CEP 14884-900, Jaboticabal, SP, Brazil;3. Faculdade de Engenharia de Ilha Solteira (UNESP – FEIS), Caixa Postal 31, CEP 15385-000, Ilha Solteira, SP, Brazil;4. Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas de Botucatu (UNESP – FCA), Caixa Postal 237, CEP 18.603-970, Botucatu, SP, Brazil;5. North Carolina State University, Dept. Forestry and Environmental Resources and Forest Productivity Cooperative (FPC), 3108 Jordan Hall, Raleigh, NC 27695-8008, United States;6. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz” (USP – ESALQ), Av. Pádua Dias 11, Caixa Postal 9, CEP 13400-970, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil;7. Instituto Florestal de São Paulo, CP 1322, 01059-970 São Paulo, SP, Brazil;1. Department of Forest Science, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE 51.020-240, Brazil;2. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States;3. UNESP-FCA, Botucatu, SP CEP 18.610-300, Brazil;4. Department of Forest Sciences, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP 13.400-000, Brazil;1. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;2. CSIRO National Research Collections, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;3. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Private Bag 12, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia;4. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia;5. CSIRO Agriculture Flagship, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia |
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| Abstract: | We examined the impacts of a defoliating pest, Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), on rotation-length Eucalyptus globulus plantation productivity under current and future climates by using the ecoclimatic species niche model CLIMEX to generate severity, frequency and seasonality scenarios for MLD for specific E. globulus sites. These scenarios were used as inputs to the process-based forest productivity model CABALA. Climate projections from two global climate models were used to drive CABALA with either no or full acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated atmospheric CO2 assumed. In addition we varied water and nitrogen availability to examine the impacts of different severities of MLD on plantation productivity across environmental gradients. We predicted that, under current climatic conditions, rotation-length reductions in V associated with MLD damage would be no greater than 12%, with an across-site average of 6%. There was considerable between-site variation in predictions that reflected variation in site productivity. Under future climates, we predicted that MLD may reduce rotation length V by as much as 42%, although the reduction averaged across all sites was 11%. The predicted impact of MLD on V was greatest at lower productivity sites. The importance of N and water availability in recovery following MLD attack was highlighted. Uncertainty in model predictions revolved around the climate models used and assumptions of degree of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2. Large differences in predicted impact of MLD were associated with this uncertainty. Our results suggest that the effects of defoliation due to pests on plantation productivity should not be ignored when considering future management of forest plantations. The approach developed here provides managers with a tool to appraise risk and examine possible impacts of management interventions designed to reduce or manage risk. |
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