基于改进投影寻踪法的农业气象灾情综合评价

针对气象灾害综合评价中客观存在的模糊性和多因素相互联系及相互制约性，提出运用改进投影寻踪法解决气象灾害综合评价问题，建立改进的投影寻踪综合评价模型。改进的投影寻踪法把每年的多维指标投影成一维的指标值，根据投影值的大小直接进行排序。通过对福建省近25a的农业气象灾害综合评价，结果表明：低温冻害对福建农业影响最大，按投影值将灾情划分为4级，福建1999年灾情最重，1984年灾情最轻，评价结果符合福建省的实际情况。

Comprehensive Assessment of Agro-meteorological Disasters Based on Improved Projection Pursuit Method

Aiming at the fuzziness, multi-connection and conditionality of the multi-factor objectively existed in the assessment of meteorological disaster, a improved projection pursuit method which integrated the multidimensional index of every year into one-dimensional projection value and could directly rank the indexes according to the projection value. The method was applied to comprehensively assess agro-meteorological disasters over the past 25 years in Fujian Province. The results showed that the low temperature induced freezing injury had the greastest impacts on agriculture in Fujian. According to the projection values, the agro-meteorological disasters were divided into four grades. The most serious disaster happened in 1999 ,while the most trivial one was in 1984. This result was consistent with the actual situation of Fujian Province.