我国食用菌出口结构对其贸易竞争力指数的灰色动态模型分析

运用灰色关联分析方法、GM(1,11)模型、GM(1,1)模型对2005—2010年我国十大类食用菌的出口结构与食用菌贸易竞争力指数进行了分析与预测。结果表明,它们的关联程度都很大,但其发展不够协调;我国食用菌贸易竞争力指数将持续增大,其中6类食用菌的出口竞争力将持续增强,其他4类食用菌的出口竞争力将减弱。

Analysis of China's mushroom export structure versus its trade competitiveness index with grey dynamic models

This article carried out the analysis and forecast of the export structure of China’s top ten kinds of mushroom and the edible mushroom trade competitiveness index in 2005—2010 with the gray relational analysis method,the GM(1,11) model and the GM(1,1) models.The results showed that their connection degrees were high,but their developments were not inconsistent;China’s mushroom trade competitiveness index will continue to increase,the export competitiveness of six kinds of the mushroom will continue to increase,and the export competitiveness of the other four kinds of the mushroom will weaken.