历次五年计划期间中国新建国家森林公园时空分布及动态演化

文中采用数据分析法以及平均最近邻指数、核密度分析、中心分析和标准差椭圆等计量地理学方法，研究历次五年计划期间中国新建国家森林公园时空演变特征，结果表明:从“八五”及以前到“十三五”时期，国家森林公园依次经历了萌芽生长、规范建设、转型发展、生态开发、发展提升、内涵建设6个阶段；新建国家森林公园空间分布为集聚型，呈“点状集中，点、带状分布并存”的格局，以“胡焕庸线”为界，东南与西北分异明显，东南地区连片高密度分布、西北地区局部零星集聚；分布中心经历了南—西北—东南—西—东北的演变过程，南北位移稍大于东西位移；范围由分散到集中再到分散，长轴均呈东北—西南走向、短轴均呈西北—东南走向。根据结果预测未来一段时期国家森林公园绝对数量可能进一步扩张，在全国范围内呈整体扩散、局部突出发展，并提出未来尤其是“十四五”期间提高森林资源利用率、优化国家森林公园战略布局的发展思路。

Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Dynamic Evolution of China's Newly Approved National Forest Parks During Past Five-Year Plan Periods

By using data analysis and quantitative geography methods including the nearest neighbor index, nuclear density analysis, center analysis and standard deviation ellipse, the paper studies the spatial and temporal distribution of China's national forest parks approved during the past five-year plan periods. The results show that, from the “8th five-year plan” period and even before to the “13th five-year plan” period, national forest parks have successively gone through six stages of germination and growth, standardized construction, transformational development, ecological development, development promotion and connotation construction. The spatial distribution of newly approved national parks is characterized by clustering, with the pattern of “point concentration and point and belt coexisting distribution”, and the national parks present evident differences between the southeast and the northwest regions with “Hu line” as the boundary, i.e.,high-density distribution in the Southeast while sporadic agglomeration in the Northwest. The distribution center has experienced the evolution process of “south-northwest-southeast-west-northeast”, and the south-north displacement is slightly greater than the east-west displacement. The distribution scope shows the changes from divergence to convergence and then back to divergence, and the long axis is always northeast-southwest while the short axis is always northwest-southeast. It is predicted in accordance to the results that the absolute number of national forest parks will further go up in the near future, and national park distribution will present the pattern of overall diffusion across the country and prominent development in certain regions. The development ideas of improving the utilization rate of forest resources and optimizing the strategic layout of national forest parks in the future, especially during the “14th five-year plan” period are put forward.