基于粗糙集和突变级数法的区域水资源可持续利用评价

为减少评价过程中指标信息筛选和权重赋予的人为主观影响,提出粗糙集和突变级数相耦合的区域水资源可持续利用评价方法.以福建省为例,以9个设区市为研究单元,从水资源条件、开发利用、生态环境和经济社会等方面,构建由4大准则20项指标组成的指标体系,进行水资源可持续利用评价.结果表明：1）应用粗糙集约简冗余指标,依据属性重要度对指标排序,并耦合突变级数法进行水资源可持续利用评价是可行的,不仅可筛除冗余指标信息,而且无需过多人工干预,可很大程度地减少人为主观影响;2）福建省各设区市水资源可持续利用水平排序为龙岩＞三明＞宁德＞南平＞漳州＞福州＞泉州＞莆田＞厦门,呈现自西向东、西北向东南可持续利用水平递减的空间格局,且根据评价结果划分的4个可持续利用分区,可为水资源分区开发利用和管理保护提供理论依据.

Sustainable utilization evaluation of regional water resources based on rough set theory and catastrophe progression method

In order to reduce the subjective influence imposed by indicator selection and weight determination,the method coupling rough set and catastrophe progression has been proposed for the comprehensive sustainable utilization evaluation of regional water resources.Taking nine cities of Fujian Province as basic research units,an evaluation index system consisting of four criteria and twenty indicators is constructed to evaluate the sustainability of water resources.The results show that the method of coupling rough set with catastrophe progression is feasible in evaluating the sustainability of water resources,due to its superiority of screening redundant information and reducing the subjective influence imposed by human intervention.The sustainability of water resources utilization in Fujian Province is in a descending order as follows：Longyan,Sanming,Ningde,Nanping,Zhangzhou,Fuzhou,Quanzhou,Putian and Xiamen,showing a declining trend from the northwest toward the southeast.Based on the evaluation results,nine districts and cities can be divided into four partitions,providing a theoretical basis for the exploration,utilization and protection of water resources in Fujian Province.