漓江流域土地利用变化分析及预测

以1993年、1999年、2006年和2010年四期Landsat遥感数据为基础，应用混合分类法对研究区主要景观类型进行分类，并通过土地利用转移矩阵及四种常用景观指数分析了漓江流域近20 a来的土地利用变化特征。针对研究区近20 a的土地利用变化情况，应用CLUE-S预测模型对漓江流域2020年的土地利用变化情况进行预测。结果表明:漓江流域土地利用在近20 a间发生了较大变化，具有重要生态功能的林地面积退化明显，建设用地与耕地所占比重不断增加。通过对四期TM数据进行景观分析，发现研究区内景观优势度减小，破碎度增加，由此认为研究区内生态环境正在逐步退化，这主要与漓江流域水源林地遭到不断砍伐以及人类经济活动有关。基于历史土地利用数据用CLUE-S模型对漓江流域2020年土地利用格局进行模拟，发现林地面积继续减少，建设用地面积持续增加。该模拟结果可为漓江流域经济发展、土地规划及生态保护提供参考依据。

Analysis and Prediction of the Land Use Changes in the Lijiang River Basin

Based on the Landsat images of 1993, 1999, 2006 and 2000, hybrid classification method was used to classify the landscape of Lijiang River Basin and analyzed the land use changes through land use change detection and analysis of landscape indices (dominance index, evenness index, fragmentation index and diversity index). Furthermore, CLUE-S model was used to predict the land use spatial patterns in the future. The result showed that the land use in the Lijiang River Basin had large changes over the last 20 years, including the reduction of forest area and the increase of construction sites and cultivated area. The dominance index of the study area decreased and the fragmentation index increased, which indicated that the ecological environment had degenerated gradually because the head water forest was destroyed by human and economic activities. CLUE-S model was used to forecast the spatial patterns of land use for the year of 2020. The result indicates that the forest area will continue to decrease and the construction land will continue to increase. The results can provide some references for economic development, land use planning and ecological protection of the study area.