中国耕地资源安全预警系统探讨

该文尝试设计和建立中国耕地资源安全预警系统，为耕地资源安全预警技术规范的编制和耕地资源的合理保护利用提供参考。耕地资源安全预警系统包括监测、评价和预警3个组成部分；耕地资源安全的监测、评价和预警指标体系由距离耕地保有量差值、耕地减少率、基本农田减少率、自然质量等别、耕地结构质量、耕地退化面积比重、化肥农药农膜负荷、耕地重金属污染面积比重和耕地水土流失面积比重9个指标构成，各指标的监测周期在1～10 a间；短板效应模型可以作为耕地资源安全预警的综合评价模型。耕地资源预警系统的建立需要借助于多个行政部门的合作。

Discussion on Warning System of Cultivated Land Resources Security in China

This paper aims to design and establish the Warning System of Cultivated Land Resources Security (WSCLRS) in China. This research will be benefit for drawing up the specifications of WSCLRS and rationally conserving and using cultivated land. WSCLRS includes three components: monitoring system, evaluating system and warning system. Nine indexes were selected to monitor, evaluate and early warn the cultivated land resources security, i.e. the difference between actual area and inventory area of cultivated land, lost rate of cultivated land, lost rate of prime cultivated land, natural quality grade of cultivated land, structural quality of cultivated land, degraded proportion of cultivated land, application quantity of chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemical pesticide and mulching film, contaminated proportion by heavy metal of cultivated land and runoff and sediment ratio of cultivated land. The monitor period of the 9 indexes ranges from 1 to 10 years. Model of short board effect was recommended to early warn the synthetically cultivated land resources security. It is noted that cooperation of different administrative departments is necessary when establishing WSCLRS.