基于EMD的平朔矿区生态足迹变化及动力学预测分析

生态足迹是一种度量人类对自然利用程度的综合指标，它受到人口、土地、科技、消费等众多社会、经济和自然因素的影响，在时间和空间上具有多尺度特征。在计算平朔矿区1989—2010年人均EF的基础上，采用EMD和动力学预测方法，研究矿区人均EF的长时间序列演化规律，结果表明，矿区人均生态足迹存在一个4.68 a左右的准周期波动；从人均EF波动的趋势量分布来看，1989年以来平朔矿区的人均生态足迹不断增长，且年平均增长率为1.787 4%，但2001年以后的10 a间，由于矿区加强了土地复垦和生态重建工作，人均EF的年平均增长率下降为0.046 7%；预测结果表明，虽然矿区人均EF依然呈上升趋势，但年均增长率减缓，模型预测2020年平朔矿区人均生态足迹为2.566 hm²/cap；研究结果有助于了解矿区未来资源的利用情况和区域生态压力面临的问题，为有关部门制定和实施相应的可持续发展战略措施提供理论参考。

Analysis of Ecological Footprint Change and Dynamic Prediction in Pingshuo Mining Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

Ecological footprint is an integrated index of measuring the impact of human’s consumption on ecosystem. It is influenced by population, land technology consumer and many other social, economic and natural factors with multi-scale characteristics in time and space. The EF per capita from 1989 to 2010 was calculated used EMD and dynamic prediction to study the long time series evolution of EF per capita in mining area. The results showed that the EF per capita in mining area had the 4.68 years period. With respect to the trend quantity of fluctuate of EF per capita, the EF per capita continuous grew in Pingshuo mine since 1989. And the average annual growth rate was 1.787 5%. However, the average annual growth rate of EF per capita fell to 0.046 7% in the decade after 2001 because the land reclamation and ecological reconstruction were strengthened in mining area. The predicted results showed that the average annual growth rate slowed down although the EF per capita still rose. The model predicted that the EF per capita of Pingshuo mine will be 2.566 hm²/cap in 2020. The research results can contribute to understand the utilization of mine resources and the problem of regional ecological pressure and provide theoretical reference for building the sustainable development measures for relevant departments.