基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的快速城市化地区土地利用结构变化研究

研究快速城市化地区土地利用结构的变化并预测其未来发展趋势，可以为区域土地合理利用与配置提供参考。利用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型研究无锡市2000—2010年的土地利用结构变化，探讨其驱动因子，并区分目前趋势发展、生态环境保护和综合发展3种情景，对研究区2020年土地利用结构进行模拟和预测。结果表明，10 a间无锡市建设用地增加了近一倍，主要来源于耕地；目前趋势发展情景下建设用地扩张仍明显，生态环境保护情景下建设用地不再增加，而综合发展情景下建设用地略有增加，耕地等地类减少不明显。对于无锡市这样的快速城市化地区而言，综合发展情景的模拟结果是比较理想的。

Study on Land Use Change in Rapid Urbanization Area Based on Logisitc-CA-Markov Model

The study of land use change of rapid urbanization areas and prediction of future trends could provide a reference for rational and configurational regional land use. Logistic-CA-Markov model was used to study the land use structure change of Wuxi during the period of 2000—2010, the driving factors of change, and to distinguish the current trend, eco-environmental protection and the development of the three scenarios, and to imitate the land use structure of Wuxi in 2020. The result indicates that the construction land nearly doubled over last ten years which mainly derived from cultivated land. The construction land expansion was still evident in the current trend scenario. However, the construction land no longer increased in the eco-environmental protection scenario. In addition, the construction land increased and cultivated land declined slightly. The simulation result of the comprehensive development scenario is the ideal pattern of development for rapid urbanization.