青海省2000-2008年间耕地变化及驱动力研究

该文分析了青海省2000—2008年期间耕地变化的特征及影响耕地变化的主要驱动力。基于青海省土地利用变更调查序列数据，选取了耕地总量、人均耕地变化、耕地增减情况等指标分析了青海省耕地的数量变化特点，选取动态度差异指标，分析了全省耕地变化的区域差异特征。结合青海省耕地变化的特点和区域发展的特征，采取定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，从耕地保护政策、生态退耕工程、土地开发整理工程、重大建设工程、人口与民族因素和城镇化进程6个方面分析了耕地变化的驱动力。根据耕地变化的特征和主要的驱动力，在耕地管理层面建议坚持最严格的耕地保护制度，加大土地整理的力度，坚持差异化的耕地保护政策，协调重大建设工程对耕地的占用。

Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Changes in Qinghai Province During 2000-2008

Cultivated land change is an important component of the process of land use change, characterized by strategic, regional, hierarchical, dynamic and periodical features. It’s the result of common-effect of social factors and environmental factors. The driving forces impact on the cultivated land change diverse under different circumstances. This study aimed to analyze the features of cultivated land changes from 2000 to 2008 in Qinghai Province and the main driving forces that brought about the changes. Based on the annual survey data of land use changes in Qinghai Province, this paper analyzed: (1) the changes in the total and per capita cultivated land according to records of increases and decreases in cultivated land; (2) the regional differences according to dynamic degree. Furthermore, based on the features of cultivated land use changes and regional development in Qinghai Province, this study analyzed the driving forces of cultivated land changes through both quantitative and qualitative methods from six aspects including cultivated land protection policy, ecological restoration engineering, land development and consolidation project, major construction projects, population and ethnic factors and urbanization. The results showed that the cultivated land changes in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2008 were characterized by a sequence pattern of ‘sharply decrease-slow increase-slow decrease-slow increase’, a difference among regions, and causes of various driving forces. Thus, this paper suggests that we should take the strict cultivated land protection policy, intensify the policy of land consolidation, insist differentiation of cultivated land, and keep the balance between major constitution projects and land occupation.