新疆暴雨洪涝灾害损失的时空特征及其影响因素

根据1984-2016年新疆暴雨洪涝灾情资料,采用趋势分析、线性回归和相关性分析方法,对新疆暴雨洪涝灾害损失的时空特征进行分析。以年降水量和GDP为指标,探究新疆暴雨洪涝灾害格局的影响因素。结果表明:①新疆暴雨洪涝灾害部分地区呈加重趋势,其年内分布差异大,多集中在夏季;②空间上,新疆暴雨洪涝灾害年均频次最高的县市与年均损失最高的县市并不完全对应,说明新疆暴雨洪涝灾害年均频次与年均损失相关性不高;③从全疆来看,损失与年降水量、GDP均具有显著性正相关,R^2分别为0.56和0.57;④在一定程度上降水量的增多,使得新疆部分地区暴雨洪涝灾害损失呈上升趋势,发生暴雨洪涝灾害时经济发达地区损失较高。

Temporal-spatial characteristics and the influencing factors of rainstorm-flood disasters in Xinjiang

Based on the data from rainstorm-flood disasters in Xinjiang from 1984 to 2016,linear regression and correlation analysis methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the losses caused by these disasters.Using annual precipitation and GDP as indicators to explore the influencing factors of rainstorm and flood patterns in Xinjiang,the results showed that some areas of Xinjiang show an aggravating trend (The maximum area is Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture and Altay Prefecture).The annual distribution varied,especially in the summers.Spatially,the counties and cities with the highest annual rainstorm-flood disaster frequency in Xinjiang did not completely correspond to the counties and cities with the highest annual losses.This indicates that the annual average frequency of rainstorm-flood disaster in Xinjiang is not highly correlated with the annual loss.Across the whole of Xinjiang,these losses showed significant positive correlations with annual precipitation and GDP (R^2= 0.56 and 0.57,respectively).With increases in precipitation,especially heavy rain,flood disaster losses in some areas of Xinjiang are increasing.When rainstorms and floods occur,losses are greater in developed areas.