Climate change and translocations: The potential to re-establish two regionally-extinct butterfly species in Britain |
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Authors: | Matthew J Carroll Barbara J Anderson Tom M Brereton Sarah J Knight Ottakar Kudrna Chris D Thomas |
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Institution: | aDepartment of Biology (Area 18), University of York, P.O. Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK;bUKPopNet, Department of Biology (Area 18), University of York, P.O. Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK;cButterfly Conservation, 3 Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK;dCentre of Population Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK;eNaturmuseum Südtirol, Bindergasse 1, I-39100 Bozen, Italy |
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Abstract: | Climate change is causing many organisms to migrate to track climatically-suitable habitat. In many cases, this will happen naturally, but in others, human intervention may be necessary in the form of ‘assisted colonisation’. Species re-establishments in suitable parts of their historic ranges provide an opportunity to conserve some species and to test ideas about assisted colonisation. Here, bioclimatic models of the distributions of two extinct British butterflies, Aporia crataegi and Polyommatus semiargus, were used to investigate the potential for re-establishment in Britain. Generalised additive models and generalised linear models were created to describe the species’ European distributions for the period 1961–1990. All models projected the British climate during this period to be suitable for both species. Thirty-year climate projections for the periods 1991–2020 and 2021–2050, and for three climate change scenarios, were then put into the models to generate projections of climatic suitability throughout the 21st century. British climate was projected to remain highly suitable for A. crataegi, but to decline somewhat for P. semiargus. Southern and eastern Britain were found to be the areas most likely to support suitable climate. This difference between the species appeared to be due in part to decreasing summer rainfall in climate change projections, as this should only benefit A. crataegi. It is concluded that, with further study of habitat requirements, both species could be reintroduced to Britain as part of a long-term European conservation strategy. |
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Keywords: | Aporia crataegi Assisted colonisation Bioclimatic modelling Black-veined white Mazarine blue Polyommatus semiargus |
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