白玉兰始花期与气象因子的关系分析

利用金华市2000—2012年白玉兰始花期物候记载和同期气象资料，研究了白玉兰始花期的物候特征及其与气象因子的相关关系，结果表明：（1）金华市白玉兰始花期年际间波动幅度较大，最早出现在2 月12 日，最迟出现在3月21日；（2）影响白玉兰始花期变化的主要气象因子是上年2月的雨日和日照、当年1月、2月的日照和平均温度以及当年1月负积温；（3）运用多元线性回归方法建立了基于主要气象因子的白玉兰始花期预测模型，模型可以提前预测白玉兰始花期，模型实用性较强、拟合预报效果较好。

Analysis on relationships between first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata and meteorological factors

Based on the first-lowering dates of Magnolia denudata during 2000 to 2012 and its meteological datas in Jinhua city， the relationships between first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata and meteorological factors. The results showed that: （1） The annual fluctuation of first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata was bigger in Jinhua city， its earliest date was on Feb 12th and the latest date was on Mar 21st. （2）Principal climate factors that influenced the first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata were rainy days and sunshine hours in last February， sunshine hours and mean temperature in January， sunshine hours and mean temperature in February and negative accumulated temperature in January. （3） The prediction model of the first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata was established by multiple linear regression based on the principal meteological factors， which could predict the first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata with good practical applicability.