生猪价格波动对散养户生产福利影响的实证分析

选取1980要2012年散养生猪相关数据，运用Minot福利模型，测算出生猪散养户生产的短期福利和长期福利，并就散养户生产福利的变动规律和影响因素展开分析。结果表明，短期福利和长期福利的波动趋势完全一致，长期福利始终大于短期福利但差异并不明显；生猪价格是散养户生产福利的直接影响因素，价格转折点处福利效应变动最大；生猪养殖的粮食投入通过影响生猪供给量来影响散养户的生产福利，是影响生产福利的间接因素。

Empirical analysis on the impact of hog price fluctuation on the production welfare of backyard households

Based on backyard hog data in 1980-2012,this paper used Minot welfare model to measure the shortterm and long-term production welfare of backyard hog farmers, and analyzed the law of the change of production welfare and the factors that influenced it. The results showed that, the trend of fluctuations of short-term welfare and long-term welfare was exactly the same, and long-term production welfare was over short-term but the difference was not obvious.Hog price was the factor that directly affected the production welfare of backyard farmers, and the fluctuation change was much greater at the turning point of price trend. The inputting quantity of grain consumption was a indirect factor affecting the production welfare of backyard farmers by influencing the hog production.