基于区间两阶段抗风险随机规划的绿洲水资源优化配置

合理配置绿洲灌区的水资源是缓解绿洲水资源压力的主要解决方法。选取塔里木盆地南缘和田地区策勒绿洲作为研究区域，使用离散概率函数处理策勒河近60 a的年径流量数据，结合策勒绿洲特色经济果林种植特点，建立含有抗风险方法的区间两阶段随机规划模型，并基于灰度线性规划的解法对该模型进行求解。结果表明：在策勒河来水量不确定时，应优先灌溉红枣；相比原区间两阶段随机规划方法，引入抗风险方法后得到的配水策略虽略保守，却可以在枯水年与平水年保持总收益区间上限不变的同时，将总收益的区间下限分别从5.1×10⁷元、2.12×108元提高到5.6×10⁷元、2.17×10⁸元。通过典型案例应用分析，显示区间两阶段抗风险随机规划模型的应用不仅能够保证在满足各作物需水要求的情况下争取收益最大化，并且可以抵御由于水量不足而带来的风险。

The optimal allocation of oasis agricultural water based on the interval two\|stage stochastic programming with CVaR

Rational allocation of water resources for irrigation is a main approach to alleviate pressures of water shortage in the oasis. We selected Cele Oasis in Hotan area located in Southern margin of Tarim Basin as the study area, and utilized discrete probability functions to process the annual runoff data of Cele River during the recent 60 years. Based on planting structure of the economic fruit forests in the Cele Oasis, we modeled the irrigation management problem as an interval two\|stage stochastic programming with CVaR (ITSP-CVaR) to handle risks caused by randomness and uncertainty. In addition, an innovated method based on the grey linear programming was proposed to solve the ITSP-CVaR model. The research results showed that when the intake water volume in Cele River was uncertain, the jujube should be preferentially irrigated. Moreover, although the ITSP-CVaR model served as a little more conservative water allocation strategy compared to the original ITSP, it remained the upper bounds of total revenue in low\|flow and medium\|flow years, and at the same time increased the lower bounds from 5.1×10⁷ Yuan (RMB) and 2.12×10⁸ Yuan to 5.6×10⁷ Yuan and 2.17×10⁸ Yuan, respectively. The typical case analysis showed that the application of ITSP-CVaR model not only ensured the maximization of income while meeting the water requirements of each fruit forest, but also resisted risks in the case of water shortage. Thus, the model can have a great significance for improving the water efficiency of oasis agriculture and maintaining the agricultural ecological stability.