基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险性评估

为了提高低温冷冻灾害的防御能力，为政府部门制定防灾减灾规划提供科学依据。本研究基于自然灾害形成机理及风险评估原理，以济南市长清区为例，利用气候资料、历史灾情数据、地理信息数据及社会经济等资料，采用层次分析法和加权综合评价法，借助GIS空间分析技术，通过对致灾因子危险性、敏感性、易损性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标的空间评价，实现了对长清区低温冷冻灾害的风险性评估和综合区划。结果表明：长清区低温冷冻灾害总体表现为空间化强，没有规则的分布规律，综合风险性总体水平较高。文昌街道办事处、五峰山街道办事处、双泉乡的部分地区综合风险性最高，属于低温冷冻灾害的重点防御区域；轻、低风险主要分布在平安街道办事处、万德镇、马山镇、崮云湖街道办事处的部分辖区。该评估结果将对本地区农作物的种植规划及灾害防御措施的制定提供参考依据。

Low Temperature Freezing Disaster: Risk Assessment Based on GIS

To mitigate low temperature freezing disaster and provide a basis for decision making on disaster prevention, based on disaster formation mechanism and risk assessment principle, we used climatic data, historical disaster data, geographic information data and social economy data to analyze 4 evaluation indexes (risk, susceptibility, vulnerability and the ability to prevent and mitigate natural disasters) and carry out risk assessment and comprehensive regionalization of low temperature freezing disaster in Changqing through GIS, AHP and weighting comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that: the low temperature freezing disaster had no regular distribution law with strong spatialization and high comprehensive risk; the areas with the highest comprehensive risk were Wenchang, Wufengshan and parts of Shuangquan, which belonged to the key areas of low temperature freezing disaster prevention; light and low risks were mainly distributed in Pingan, Wande, Mashan and some parts of Guyunhu. The results can provide references for planning of crop planting and decision making on freezing disaster prevention.