应用分形理论估算丹江口水库水源区总氮、总磷的流失量

[目的]掌握区域农业面源污染物的流失状况,证明分形计算结果的可靠性。[方法]采用分形理论对丹江口水库水源区河南省所在的区域2013年总氮(TN),总磷(TP)的流失量进行估算,并与输出系数法的值进行比较。[结果]研究区污染物的流失以氮为主,TN的流失量是TP的7.16倍;禽畜养殖引起的流失量最多,占了总量的69.93%,农田化肥中的流失量占21.99%;灌河产生的污染物最多,其次是丹江、淇河、滔河,但在流失强度上却是滔河最大,其次是灌河、丹江、淇河;通过配对t检验分析将分形方法计算的污染物总量与输出系数法相比,在0.1水平下有统计学意义,说明前者较后者更能反映实际。[结论]用分形方法估算区域污染物的面源污染是可行的,应当加强区域禽畜粪尿和农田化肥的管理,以确保丹江口水库水质。

Applying Fractal Theory to Estimate Loss of Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus in Danjiangkou Reservoir Catchment

[Objective] To grasp the situation of agricultural non-point source pollution in Danjiangkou reservoir catchment areas in He''nan Province, and to prove the reliability of the fractal theory calculation results.[Methods] The fractal theory was applied to estimate the loss of total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP) in the Danjiangkou reservoir region of He''nan Province in 2013. The estimated values were compared with the ones from output coefficient method.[Results] Pollutants loss was given priority to with nitrogen in the area, the TN loss was 7.16 times of TP loss. The livestock farming contributed the largest amount of loss, accounting for 69.93% of the total loss. The second was the loss from farmland fertilizer, taking up 21.99% of the total one. The pollutant yield of Guanhe River was the most, followed by Danjiang River, Qihe River and Taohe River. The pollutant erosion intensity had a rank as Taohe River > Guanhe River > Danhe River > Qihe River. The significant paired T test(<0.1) showed that the pollutant total amounts calculated by fractal method was coincided with the ones by output coefficient method, which indicated the former could reflect the actual situation more than that of the latter.[Conclusions] Fractal method is feasible to estimate logical agricultural non-point source pollution. It is time to strengthen management of livestock manure and chemical fertilizer to ensure the water quality of Danjiangkou Reservoir.