气象因素对南方水稻黑条矮缩病的影响及预测模型的创建

南方水稻黑条矮缩病是近年来在中国南方稻区新发生的一种重要病毒性病害。为了明确气象因素与发病间的关系，提高预测能力，避免严重的损失，利用化州市2006—2014年的气象数据与南方水稻黑条矮缩病田间实际发生数据，采用逐步回归和通径分析研究了南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率与气象因素的关系。结果表明：6月中旬至7月上旬降水日数、6月下旬至7月上旬相对湿度和8月上旬平均最高气温等3个气象因子对南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率影响最为关键。利用气象因子建立了南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率回归模型为：y?＝-531.9999-4.4850x1+1.0238x2+3.6891x3+7.0837x4+1.0286x5-2.8431x6，利用该回归方程对历史资料的拟合效果非常好，预测能力强，适宜于化州本地乃至粤西地区。

Effects of Meteorological Factors on the Southern Rice Black-streaked Dwarf Virus Disease and the Establishment of Prediction Model

Southern rice black- streaked dwarf virus disease was an important fresh viral disease in the southern China recently. In order to clarify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence and improve the prediction ability and avoid heavy losses, this paper studied their relationship based on the meteorological data and the rice black- streaked dwarf virus disease occurring data by stepwise regression analysis and path analysis. After selecting the factors, we established a regression model: y? =- 531.9999- 4.4850x1+1.0238x2+3.6891x3+7.0837x4+1.0286x5-2.8431x6. It showed that the regression prediction model matched effectively and had a strong forecast ability. This provided reference not only for Huazhou, but also for western Guangdong region.