中国化肥需求预测方法浅析

总结了国际和国内相关研究方法的优劣点,探讨了适合我国管理决策特点的化肥需求研究思路,并尝试利用不同方法预测了我国化肥的理论需求和市场需求,以求进一步完善我国化肥需求预测方法。

A discussion on the method for fertilizer demand forecast of China

This paper aims to summary the method relate to fertilizer demand forecast in the world and give a discipline to use suitable method in fertilizer demand forecast for Chinese manager.After the assessment,it is proved that some methods are suitable for market demand forecast in China,such as Trend Analysis,Growth Rate Models,Production/Trade Models,and Econometric Models.And some method is suitable for long term theoretic demand forecast,such as forecasting by nutrient use efficiency.Finally,a market demand and theoretic demand were forecasted based on different methods and the effectiveness of some factors were discussed.It was proposed to improve the method by collecting the updating message about fertilizer consumption,distribution,and its contribution to crop yield and some other social factors in order to set up a crop based method to get more accurate result in future.