中国农业的区域可持续发展能力评价研究——以西南地区为例

在综合性、特殊性、系统性和实践性原则的指导下 ,选择有关指标 ,构建了一个评价农业可持续发展能力的指标体系 ,运用主成分分析法 ,对西南省区农业可持续发展能力进行实证分析及评价。结果表明 :从综合系统方面来看 ,四川的得分最高 ,农业可持续发展能力最强 ,西藏的得分最低 ,农业可持续发展能力最弱 ,最低分与最高分相差近 3 3个点位 ;从分系统方面来看 ,在经济和科技两系统中 ,四川的得分仍最高 ,西藏的最低。而在社会保障系统中 ,西藏的得分最高 ,重庆的最低 ;在生态支撑系统中 ,贵州得分最高。云南省的得分值无论从综合还是分系统方面来看都不突出 ;西南省区农业可持续发展能力强弱的排序与经济实力的排序是一致的 ,即经济实力 (GDP)的差距直接表现在农业可持续发展能力的差距上。因此 ,笔者提出了旨在提升农业可持续发展能力和协调区域经济发展的战略选择建议 ,分别是 :制度战略、科技战略和人口战略。

Evaluation of the Ability of Agriculture Sustainable Development

To strengthen people's view of agricultural importance and strategy, and reach the sustainable development of agriculture, it's very important to construct an index system that can be used to evaluate the ability of agriculture sustainable development,so we choosed some indexes under the principal of comprehensive、special、systemic and operational, and constructed such an index system. With the main composition analytic approach, we analyzed and evaluated the ability of agriculture sustainable development in Southwestern China.The result was that Sichuan province gained the first score(1.753*!3) and Tebit province,the last score(-1.534*!2) on the whole, which reflected the variety of the ability of agriculture sustainable development; Sichuan provimce also gained the highest score and Tebit province,the lowest score in economic system and science system ,but the score was almost on the contrary in society system ,in which the score gined of Chongqing province was the lowest. The score of Guizhou in biology system was in the first place, and Yunnan province was various from the second to the fourth in all systems. From the result we can see that the order of developing degree(GDP) was as same as ability of agriculture sustainable development.So we suggested that the institutional strategy,science strategy and population strategy be carried out to harmonize district economic development and enhance the ability of agriculture sustainable development.