Development of an adapted empirical drought index to the Mediterranean conditions for use in forestry

The most widely used empirical drought indices in forestry and fire risk management were tested under Mediterranean conditions. These were: the Keetch-Byram drought index KBDI, the Nesterov index NI, the Modified Nesterov index MNI, the Zhdanko index ZI which belong to the cumulative type, and the Sweden Angstrom Index which belongs to the daily type. The above indices were selected for fire risk assessment in the European Mediterranean conditions, following the method of correlating indices with real fuel moisture data. Meteorological data were collected for the testing area of the sub-urban forest of Thessaloniki, northern Greece. Time series of the drought indices were constructed for the summers of 2006 and 2007. At the same time, field data were collected in order to estimate the real fuel moisture content including surface soil, litter to represent the dead fuel moisture content, and grass to represent the live fuel moisture content. Statistical analysis of the collected field data and their correlation with the tested drought indices, which calculated from the local meteorological data, showed that KBDI is the most suitable empirical drought index for the area. Consequently, KBDI was modified for a better adaptation to Mediterranean conditions, following the development procedure as in the original paper. Based on the above method a Modified KBDI was calculated for the study area, and the differences from the original KBDI were estimated. The comparison of the two indices showed that: (a) there is a faster response of the Modified KBDI index to meteorological data, (b) the index takes on higher values during the summer months of both studied years, and thus, previously reported problems of underestimation of actual water loss is mitigated, and, (c) the estimated fire risk is higher for the study area, which is in accordance with the very low moisture content values observed.