Tracking the potato late blight pathogen in the atmosphere using unmanned aerial vehicles and Lagrangian modeling

A means for determining the aerial concentration, C (sporangia m⁻³), of plant pathogenic spores at various distances from a source of inoculum is needed to quantify the potential spread of a plant disease. Values of C for Phytophthora infestans sporangia released from an area source of diseased plants in a potato canopy was quantified in three ways: (1) by using Rotorods to sample the air just above the source, (2) by using unmanned aerial vehicles to sample the air at altitudes up to 90 m above the source and at downwind distances up to 500 m from the source, and (3) by using a Lagrangian stochastic simulation of sporangia flight trajectories to tie these two measurements together. Experiments were conducted using three potato crops over two years. Model predictions of time-average, crosswind-integrated concentrations were highly correlated (r = 0.9) with values of C measured using the unmanned aerial vehicles. The model describes the release and dispersal of sporangia from a potato canopy to a downwind distance of 500 m. Thus, it may have utility as a part of an area-wide decision support system by helping to predict risk of disease spread between neighboring or distant potato fields.