Winter chilling trends for deciduous fruit trees in Australia |
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Authors: | Rebecca Darbyshire Leanne Webb Ian GoodwinSnow Barlow |
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Institution: | a Melbourne School of Land and Environment, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia b CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Victoria, Australia c Victorian Department of Primary Industries, Tatura, Australia |
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Abstract: | Deciduous fruit trees require exposure to cold winter temperatures to fulfil chilling requirements allowing production of normal harvests. Trends in chill accumulation over the last 100 years were investigated at a number of important horticultural locations in Australia. Historical analysis is a necessary first step when considering potential impacts of climate change. Chill was examined using four chill models; the 0-7.2 °C, Modified Utah, Positive Utah and Dynamic models. Differences between locations were found with notable recent declines at Orange, Lenswood, Tatura, Yarra Valley and Bacchus Marsh. Other locations have remained stable with no location exhibiting a consensus increase in chill across all models. Trends in chill were shown to differ between models with results indicating that the 0-7.2 °C model frequently behaved differently to the other three chill models. These results highlight the need for multi-model analysis for chill trends, especially in a climate change context, to avoid maladaptation. |
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Keywords: | Climate change Utah model Dynamic model Positive Utah model |
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