Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios |
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Authors: | X-C Zhang W-Z LiuZ Li J Chen |
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Institution: | a USDA-ARS, Grazinglands Research Laboratory, 7207W. Cheyenne St., El Reno, OK 73036, USA b State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China c College of Resource and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China d Department of Construction Engineering, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, 1100 Notre-Dame Street West, Montreal, QC H3 C 1K3, Canada |
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Abstract: | Trends and uncertainty of the climate change impacts on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were evaluated for 12 climate change scenarios projected by four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa). Compared with the present climate, overall t-tests (n = 12) show that it is almost certain that mean precipitation will decline by some 6% (>98.5% probability), daily precipitation variance increase by 12% (>99%), and maximum and minimum temperature increase by 1.46 and 1.26 °C (>99%), respectively. Compared with the present climate under the same tillage systems, it is very likely (>90%) that evapotranpiration and long-term soil water storage will decease, but runoff and soil loss will increase despite the projected declines in precipitation. There will be no significant changes in wheat grain yield.Paired t-tests show that daily precipitation variance projected under GGa is greater than those under A2 and B2 (P = 0.1), resulting in greater runoff and soil loss under GGa (P = 0.1). HadCM3 projected greater mean annual precipitation than CGCM2 and CSIRO (P = 0.1). Consequently, greater runoff, grain yield, transpiration, soil evaporation, and soil water storage were simulated for HadCM3 (P = 0.1). The inconsistency among GCMs and differential impact responses between emission scenarios underscore the necessity of using multi-GCMs and multi-emission scenarios for impact assessments. Overall results show that no-till and conservation tillage systems will need to be adopted for better soil and water conservation and environmental protection in the region during the next several decades. |
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Keywords: | Climate change Impact assessment Soil erosion Soil hydrology Wheat production |
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