Seismic anisotropy beneath Ruapehu volcano: a possible eruption forecasting tool

The orientation of crustal seismic anisotropy changed at least twice by up to 80 degrees because of volcanic eruptions at Ruapehu Volcano, New Zealand. These changes provide the basis for a new monitoring technique and possibly for future midterm eruption forecasting at volcanoes. The fast anisotropic direction was measured during three seismometer deployments in 1994, 1998, and 2002, providing an in situ measurement of the stress in the crust under the volcano. The stress direction changed because of an eruption in 1995-1996. Our 2002 measurements revealed a partial return to the pre-eruption stress state. These changes were probably caused by repeated filling and depressurizing of a magmatic dike system.