Climate and historical stand dynamics in the tropical pine forests of northern Thailand

Forest recruitment is the outcome of local- and regional-scale factors such as disturbances and climate. The relative importance of local- and regional-scale factors will determine the spatial scale at which temporal pulses of recruitment occur. In seasonal tropical forests, where the annual dry-season is a critical bottleneck to seedling survival, multi-year periods of relatively cool, wet dry seasons may be required for successful tree recruitment. Consequently, when such conditions are present, region-wide synchronisation of recruitment may occur. To examine the case for regional synchronisation of forest dynamics in the seasonal tropical pine forests of northern Thailand, we investigated forest age structures at three spatial scales: stand, site and region. We compared forest age structures with instrumental climatic records beginning in 1902. We found significant statistical evidence of synchronous recruitment at the stand- and site-scales, but not at the regional-scale. While correlations between recruitment and climate were not statistically significant, recruitment success was often linked to favourable climatic conditions. For example, recruitment at all sites was associated with multi-year periods of cool-wet dry seasons. The lack of significant correlations between recruitment and climate appears to reflect complex interactions among local disturbance history, regional climate variability and pine recruitment.