Simulating age-related changes in carbon storage and allocation in a Chinese fir plantation growing in southern China using the 3-PG model

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook (Taxodiaceae)] plantations are helping to meet China's increasing demands for timber, while, at the same time, sequestering carbon (C) above and belowground. The latter function is important as a means of slowing the rate that CO₂ is increasing in the atmosphere. Available data are limited, however, and even if extensive, would necessitate consideration of future changes in climatic conditions and management practices. To evaluate the contribution of Chinese fir plantations under a range of changing conditions a dynamic model is required. In this paper, we report successful outcome in parameterizing a process-based model (3-PG) and validating its predictions with recent and long-term field measurements acquired from different ages of Chinese fir plantations at the Huitong National Forest Ecosystem Research Station. Once parameterized, the model performed well when simulating leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP), biomass of stems (W_S), foliage (W_F) and roots (W_R), litterfall, and shifts in allocation over a period of time. Although the model does not specifically include heterotrophic respiration, we made some attempts to estimate changes in root C storage and decomposition rates in the litterfall pool as well as in the total soil respiration. Total C stored in biomass increased rapidly, peaking at age 21 years in unthinned stands. The predicted averaged above and belowground NNP (13.81 t ha⁻¹ a⁻¹) of the Chinese fir plantations between the modeling period (from 4 to 21-year-old) is much higher than that of Chinese forests (4.8–6.22 t ha⁻¹ a⁻¹), indicating that Chinese fir is a suitable tree species to grow for timber while processing the potential to act as a C sequestration sink. Taking into account that maximum LAI occurs at the age of 15 years, intermediate thinning and nutrient supplements should, according to model predictions, further increase growth and C storage in Chinese fir stands. Predicted future increases (approximately 0–2 °C) in temperature due to global warming may increase plantation growth and reduce the time required to complete a rotation, but further increases (approximately 2–6 °C) may reduce the growth rate and prolong the rotational age.