基于信息扩散理论的安徽省农业风雹灾害风险评估

为了客观评估风雹灾害对安徽省农作物造成的风险损失，利用基于信息扩散理论的风险评估模型，对安徽省1991—2012 年近22 年的农业风雹灾害进行分析。结果显示：因风雹灾造成的农业受（成）灾面积相对较小；在受灾指数10%下，安徽省风雹灾害风险水平为低风险，风险概率为156 年1 遇；安徽省风雹灾成灾指数一般不超过8%，该指数下的风险概率约为10000 年1 遇；随着受灾程度的增加，安徽省各市的风雹灾害风险概率呈下降趋势。

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Wind and Hail Disasters in Anhui Province Based on Information Diffusion Theory

The paper aims to evaluate the crop loss caused by wind and hail disasters in Anhui Province. The authors carried out a risk assessment of agricultural wind and hail disasters in nearly 22 years (1991-2012) with an risk assessment model based on the information diffusion theory. The results showed that: in Anhui Province, agricultural disaster area of wind and hail was relatively small, the affected index was under 10%, the wind and hail disaster risk level was low and the risk probability was once in 156 years. The affected index of the wind and hail disaster in Anhui Province was generally no more than 8%, and under this index, the risk probability was about once in 10000 years. The wind and hail disaster risk probability of every city in Anhui Province decreased with the increasing of the damage degree.