基于GIS的新乡市春季气候变化特征分析

基于新乡市1971—2014年8个气象站点3—5月逐日温度、降水量和日照时数观测数据,采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平法和Mann-Kendall检验法,结合GIS技术,探讨和分析新乡市春季气候的变化趋势和时空分布特征,以期为当地防灾减灾和气候变化研究工作提供科学参考。结果表明:新乡市春季气温呈上升趋势,平均增幅为0.035℃/a,并且在1998年发生显著增温突变,北部地区增温幅度高于南部地区;春季降水呈现微弱增多趋势,平均增幅为0.220 mm/a,变化不明显且年际间波动性较大,降水增幅整体上呈"北多南少"趋势;春季日照时数以平均1.216 h/a的速率呈减少趋势,并且在1984年发生显著递减突变,北部地区日照时数的减幅明显高于其他地区。全球变暖已造成本地区气候变异性明显增大。

Climatic Change Characteristics in Xinxiang in Spring Based on GIS

Based on the data of daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours from March to May of 8 meteorological stations in Xinxiang from 1971 to 2014, the authors used linear tendency estimate method, accumulative anomaly method and Mann-Kendall method with GIS technology, discussed and analyzed the climate change trend and spatial-temporal distribution features in spring in Xinxiang, in order to provide reference for disaster prevention and mitigation. The results showed that the spring temperature in Xinxiang had an increasing trend with an average growth rate as 0.035℃/a, and a significant mutation of temperature increase happened in 1998, the warming rate of the north was higher than that of the south. The spring precipitation presented a weak increasing trend with an average increase rate as 0.220 mm/a, and the change was not obvious and the interannual volatility was relatively large. The increase trend of precipitation was more in the north than that in the south overall. The sunshine hours in spring had a decreasing tendency with an average rate of 1.216 h/a, and a significant decline mutation happened in 1984, the sunshine hours reduction in the north was obviously higher than that in other regions. The global warming had caused obviously regional climate variability in Xinxiang.