中国农村宅基地整理潜力估算

由于土地利用分类中缺乏农村宅基地的用地类型，中国目前尚缺乏全国尺度的农村宅基地整理潜力估算结果，不利于农村宅基地整治工作的开展和部署。笔者建立了依据农村居民点整理潜力推算法、户均宅基地标准法和农村人口等比例缩减法3种方法，估算了中国2020年的农村宅基地整理潜力。研究表明：（1）2020年，依据农村居民点整理潜力推算法测算的宅基地整理潜为239.05×104 hm²，户均宅基地标准法的测算结果为597.50×104 hm²，农村人口等比例缩减法的测算结果为130.36×104 hm²；（2）户均宅基地标准法测算的农村宅基地整理潜力由于缺乏对农村宅基地整理中自然、经济、社会限制性因素的考虑而明显偏大，综合修整后，该方法测算的中国农村宅基地整理潜力约为191.20×104 hm²；（3）统筹考虑各种测算方法的结果，中国2020年的农村宅基地整理潜力约为200×104 hm²。空间上，中国农村宅基地的整理潜力主要分布在东部和中部区域；相对而言，东北区和西部地区的整理潜力较小。各省份中，山东、安徽、河南、江苏、辽宁、黑龙江等省份的整理潜力较大；西藏、青海、上海、福建、海南5个省份的整理潜力较小。

Land Consolidation Potential of Rural Housing Land in China

Due to the lack of land use type of rural housing land in the current land use classification system inChina, the land consolidation potential of rural housing land（LCPL） in China is deficiency, against the workarrangement of land consolidation of rural housing land. The author established three methods to calculate theLCPL in China, i.e. method of modifying the land consolidation potential of rural settlement, method of ruralhousing land standard per farm household and method of shrinking rural population. Method of modifying theland consolidation potential of rural settlement showed that the LCPL in China in 2020 was about 239.05 ×104hm2. Results of methods of rural housing land standard per farm household and shrinking rural populationwere about 597.50 × 10^4hm^2 and 130.36 × 10^4hm^2 respectively. Method of rural housing land standard per farmhousehold obviously overestimated the LCPL in China due to not considering the natural, economic and sociallimitations in land consolidation process of rural housing land. After a comprehensive modification, LCPLcalculated by this method decreased to 191.20 × 10^4hm^2. Taking into full accounts of the three methods＇ results, LCPL in China in 2020 would be about 200 × 10^4hm^2. In spatial, LCPL in eastern and central Chinawas high while LCPL in northeastern and western China was low. Among different provinces, LCPL inShandong, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu, Liaoning and Heilongjiang was high, while that in Tibet, Qinghai, Shanghai,Fujian and Hainan was low.