| 近年洞庭湖区气候趋势预测误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄菊梅,闫雍,冯慧,袁泉. 近年洞庭湖区气候趋势预测误差分析[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2010, 38(33): 18907-18910 |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄菊梅 闫雍 冯慧 袁泉 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南省岳阳市气象局,湖南岳阳414000 |
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| 摘 要： | 全球气候变暖背景下,从影响洞庭湖区气候趋势的主要气候系统即赤道东太平洋海表温度、西太平洋副热带高压、南海夏季风、青藏高原积雪等出发,对19912007年洞庭湖区短期气候预测误差进行了分析,提出了一些有物理依据的看法,对把握前兆信号,提高气候趋势预测的准确率有一定的参考意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 洞庭湖区 气候趋势预测 误差分析 |
Error Analysis of Climatic Trend Forecast in Dongting Lake Area |
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| Affiliation: | HUANG Ju-mei et al ( Yueyang Meteorological Bureau, Hunan Province, Yueyang, Hunan 414000) |
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| Abstract: | Under the background of global climatic warming,the error of climatic trend forecast in Dongting Lake area from 1991 to 2007 were analyzed based on the main climatic system,such as sea-surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific,western Pacific subtropical high,South China sea summer monsoon,Tibetan Plateau snow cover and so on.And put forward some viewpoints with physical significances,which had some reference significances for grasping precursory signals and improving the accuracy of climatic trend forecast. |
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| Keywords: | Dongting Lake area Climatic trend forecast Error analysis |
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