Relations between El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United States

The 1982–1983 El Nino resulted in climatic anomalies on a global scale, including record high wildland fire activity in Indonesia and record low activity in the United States. This paper describes the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomena and possible teleconnections to United States weather. Because precursors of an El Nino may be evident several months before the onset of an event, the phenomena has potential for long-range fire activity predictions.Using 53 years of data, we tested the hypothesis that El Nino events affect annual fire occurrence and area burned in the United States. We found a statistically significant relation between El Nino events and decreased fire activity in the South. Results for the North-Central and Eastern states are weak or inconsistent. There is no evidence for any relation with the Pacific Coast or Rocky Mountain states. Despite the coarse, exploratory nature of this study, the results are sufficiently encouraging to warrant more detailed examination.