| 组合时间序列模型及其在我国农业总产值预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈显周,区晶莹,俞守华,杨春. 组合时间序列模型及其在我国农业总产值预测中的应用[J]. 广东农业科学, 2011, 38(13) |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈显周 区晶莹 俞守华 杨春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华南农业大学信息学院,广东,广州,510642
2. 华南农业大学公共管理学院,广东,广州,510642 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于组合预测理论,首先建立了我国农业总产值的ARIMA和Holt双参数线性指数平滑单项时间序列预测模型;对模型进行检验后,根据标准差法对各模型进行权重分配,建立我国农业总产值组合预测模型。通过对比证明,组合时间序列模型能在一定程度上克服单项模型缺陷,提高预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业总产值 ARIMA Holt 组合模型 |
Prediction of faming gross output in China based on combination time series model |
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| CHEN Xian-zhou,OU Jing-ying,YU Shou-hua,YANG Chun. Prediction of faming gross output in China based on combination time series model[J]. Guangdong Agricultural Sciences, 2011, 38(13) |
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| Authors: | CHEN Xian-zhou OU Jing-ying YU Shou-hua YANG Chun |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Xian-zhou1,OU Jing-ying2,YU Shou-hua1,YANG Chun1(1.College of Informatics,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China,(2.College of Public Management,China) |
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| Abstract: | Base on the theory of combination forecasting,ARIMA and Holt were used to establish individual time series forecasting models for farming gross output in China.After testing the models,weights were assigned to each prediction model according to standard deviation method,then a combination forecasting model was established.Experimental results showed that a certain extent of the combination model not only get rid of the defects of the former models,but also raised the accuracy of the prediction. |
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| Keywords: | farming gross output ARIMA Holt combination model |
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