耕地格局时空动态变化过程和差异分析——以浙江安吉为例

【目的】耕地是“人类-环境”关系的纽带和桥梁，也是农业土地系统最为重要的组成部分，掌握耕地格局时空动态变化过程和差异，有利于促进耕地合理利用的调整优化，实现耕地资源的可持续性和集约化利用。【方法】基于遥感和地理信息技术，综合采用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用扩展程度综合指数、土地利用转移矩阵等地理计量模型，研究分析1998-2009年浙江安吉耕地格局动态变化的过程与差异。【结果】该区域耕地动态变化过程复杂，水田与旱地是该区域发生转出的主要地类，从转移类型来看，多转移为林地、城镇用地与园地；从转移过程来看，2003-2009年较1998-2003年更加缓和平稳，基本没有发生较为剧烈的变动；2003-2009年，转入为耕地的地类极为单一，转移面积有限，各地类在数量和空间分布上较1998-2003年期间都趋于更加稳定；2003-2009年的耕地变化活跃度要低于1998-2003年，表明2003年以后区域耕地在利用程度与广度方面更加缓和平稳。【结论】区域产业结构和用地政策调整直接影响着耕地格局动态变化的过程和特点，本研究提出的分析方法能快速、客观反映区域耕地的动态变化过程和差异特征，为耕地时空演变研究提供了一种新思路。

Analysis on Process and Difference of Cropland Dynamics in Anji County of Zhejiang Province

【Objective】Land resource is a carrier of social economic activities, cropland is the link and bridge between human and environment, also is the most important part of the land system. It is helpful to improve the capacity to predict cropland change by understanding and mastering cropland dynamic change process and difference, and it is also beneficial to promote the scientific decision-making and intensive utilization of cropland, thus making agricultural land resource sustainable and social economy developing harmoniously.【Method】The research principally adopted the techniques of remote sensing and GIS, and used land use dynamic degree model, geographical econometric model including composite index of the degree of land use extension and transfer matrix of land use for the analysis of cropland dynamic change and difference in Anji of Zhejing Province in the two periods of 1998 to 2003 and 2003 to 2009. 【Result】The dynamic change process of cropland in research area was complex. The main types of land use transfer were irrigated land and arid land. From the point of types transfer, the main directions of cropland were forest land, construction land and garden land; the process of cropland transfer from 2003 to 2009 was smoother and steadier than the process from 1998 to 2003, and no dramatic changes were occurred. The types and area of the land resource which converted to cropland was very unitary and the area was also limited. All the types of land in the quantity and spatial distribution from 1998 to 2003 were stabler; the magnitude of cropland changes from 2003 to 2009 was lower in activity, so after 2003, cropland in the extent of utilization and range was stabler. 【Conclusion】The cropland dynamic change process and its characteristics are influenced directly by industry structure and land policy adjustment in the research area. Research methods used in this paper are operable and practical which have reflected the cropland dynamic change process and characteristics of space-time structure objectively, and have provided an idea for space-time evolution research of cropland.