影响柑桔生产者价格变动的主要因素分析

柑桔产业作为全球和中国最大水果产业，是我国南方农村的重要经济支柱产业，柑桔生产者价格直接关系到产业效益和稳定。探明影响柑桔生产者价格变动的因素及其权重，有利于维护合理平稳的柑桔生产者价格、保障柑桔产业的效益。本文分析了近期柑桔产业的状况和影响柑桔生产者价格变动的主要因素。通过数据分析和案例分析，认为柑桔生产者价格的变动主要受柑桔产量、生产成本、品种、品牌、产地、品质、成熟上市期、进出口量、天气等8个一般性因素影响，运用层次分析法计算得出其影响权重依次分别为：39.46%、24.88%、14.10%、7.47%、6.00%、3.53%、2.50%、2.05%。为确保柑桔产业的稳步发展，提出了系列建议：科学规划引领，示范带动发展；控制种植规模，优化品种结构；提高栽培水平，提升果实品质；打造响亮品牌，拓宽销售渠道。

The main factors affecting producer price variation for citrus fruit

As the largest fruit crop in the world and in China, citrus is the main economic industry for the rural development. Producer price is tightly linked with the production profit and stability of citrus industry. It is important to clarify the main factors determining the producer price so as to stabling the producer price and maintaining the production profit. According to the recent situation of citrus production and the producer price fluctuation of citrus by analyses of the collected data and some market cases, it was suggested that the producer price fluctuation of citrus was mainly affected by six general elements, including citrus production quantity, variety, the brand, location, fruit quality, mature period, and the weather with the weight coefficients of 52.11 %, 21.07 %, 12.32 %, 7.64 %, 4.31 %, and 2.55 %, respectively, calculated by analytical hierarchy process (AHP). In order to ensure the stable development of the citrus industry, a series of suggestions were put forward, including scientific programming and demonstration leading to the smooth development, regulating cultivation areas with reasonable cultivar proportion, improving the cultural techniques and fruit quality, and promotion of the fruit brand and opening up markets.