Evaluation of a commercial intravaginal thermometer to predict calving in a Hungarian Holstein-Friesian dairy farm

In this study, the utility of a commercial intravaginal thermometer was evaluated as an automated method for the prediction of calving in a total of 257 healthy pregnant Holstein–Friesian female cattle. The accuracy and the sensitivity of predicting calving within 48 hr before calving were also evaluated. The intravaginal temperature changes from 72 hr before and up to calving were significantly (p ≤ .001) affected by parity, season (summer vs. autumn), the time of day (8 a.m. or 8 p.m.) and the 6-hr time intervals (38.19°C: first interval 0 to 6 hr before calving vs. 38.78°C: twelfth interval 66 to 72 hr before calving), while the gender (p = .943), and the weight of the calf (p = .610), twinning (p = .300), gestation length (p = .186), foetal presentation (p = .123), dystocia (p = .197) and retention of foetal membranes (p = .253) did not affect it significantly. The sensitivity of the SMS of expecting calving within 48 hr and the positive predictive value were 62.4% and 75%, respectively, while the sensitivity and the positive predictive value for the SMS of expulsion reached 100%. It can be concluded that the investigated thermometer is not able to predict calving within 48 hr accurately; however, imminent calving can be accurately alerted.