草坪草病害风险性评估体系的初步建立及应用

为探索建立统一的草坪草病害风险性评价尺度,本研究引入有害生物风险分析（Pest Risk Analysis）理论。基于有害生物风险分析的规定程序,结合草坪绿地生态系统特点及模糊数学理论,利用德尔菲法及层次分析法,探讨了草坪绿地病害风险分析体系的建立、评价指标和评价值的计算方法。初步建立了三层次17个评价指标的综合评价模型R=5P1×P2×P3×P4×P5,并运用此模型评价了草坪草5种主要病害的风险性危害值。结果表明,草坪草褐斑病(Rhizoctonia solani)、腐霉病(Phythium ultimum)和镰刀菌枯萎病(Fusarium spp.)3种病害的风险性危害值在0.6～0.8,风险级别为高风险;草坪草锈病(Puccinia spp.)和德氏霉叶枯病(Drechslera spp.)2种病害的风险性危害值在0.4～0.6,风险级别为中等风险。在实际工作中,应根据不同的病害风险等级制定相对应的风险管理策略及具体办法。

Preliminary establishment and application of turfgrass disease risk evaluation system

In order to find an uniform solution for evaluating the risk of turf diseases,pest risk analysis system to turf disease was introduced and a model for analyzing the risk level of the pest was developed.Based on the rule of standards for pest measurements(ISPM),fuzzy mathematics theory and characteristics of the turf grass ecosystem,we discussed the criterion of evaluation and calculation measures of the model on the method of AHP and Delphi.In this study,an assessment model,including seventeen evaluation indexes,was established.The estimative equation was R=(P1×P2×P3×P4×P5)～(1/5).Using this model,five kinds of turfgrass diseases were evaluated.The results showed that the high risk level with the value from 0.6 to 0.8 involved three kinds of diseases,such as Rhizoctonia solani,Phythium ultimum and Fusarium spp.The middle risk level with the value from 0.4 to 0.6 involved two kinds of diseases,Puccinia spp.and Drechslera spp.In factual tasks,we should set up strategies of the risk management and make concrete analysis for concrete problems according to different disease risk levels.