农村种植业季节性剩余劳动力估算方法研究与应用

农村种植业季节性劳动力剩余是我国农村劳动力市场新问题,研究尚处于起步阶段。目前农村种植业季节性剩余劳动力定义尚不清晰。文章研究农村种植业季节性剩余劳动力估算方法,提出农村种植业中农事阶段划分方法,建立农村种植业季节性劳动力需求估算模型。提出两种衡量农村种植业季节性劳动力剩余程度方法并分别建立指标估算模型。两个模型分别是农村种植业季节性剩余劳动力数量估算模型和农村种植业季节性劳动力剩余率估算模型。为方便模型使用,提高估算方法准确性,给出相关模型在实际应用中数据获取和处理方法。以黑龙江省绥化市为例,估算绥化市季节性剩余劳动力数量及比率。

Research and application of estimation methods of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry

Currently,the problem of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry is one of the new problems faced by rural labor market in China.The research on this problem is still in its infancy and has not gotten enough attention.In previous researches,the definition of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry has not specified clearly.Meanwhile,the research of estimation methods of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry is not rigorous enough.Based on the existing research,in this paper,the definition of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry was presented clearly.In order to study the estimation methods of seasonal surplus labor force in rural planting industry combined with new definition,this paper put forward the method to divide time into the agricultural stages and built the estimation model of seasonal labor demand in rural planting industry.On these bases,two measures were proposed to measure the degree of seasonal surplus labor force in rural planting industry.Two estimation models were established based on these two measures,respectively.They were the estimation model of the amount of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry and the estimation model of the degree of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry.In order to facilitate the application of two models and improve the accuracy of the estimation models,the paper also gave the method of data collection and processing in the practical application.Meanwhile,theories proposed in this study wre applied in Suihua City,Heilongjiang Province as a case study.The amount of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry and the degree of seasonal surplus labor in rural planting industry in Suihua City,Heilongjiang province were estimated.