基于GIS的菏泽市高温灾害风险评估与区划

为了研究菏泽市各个区县高温灾害风险的分布状况，选取菏泽市8 县1 区的1970—2014 年地面气象观测站的气温数据，以≥35℃的年高温日数和年极端最高气温为指标，分析高温天气的基本特征。利用高温灾害风险指数法、专家打分法、层次分析法、加权综合评分法，选取适当的指标。结合GIS 系统，在全面考虑致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体的易损性以及防灾减灾能力等因素，得出了菏泽市高温灾害风险区划图。结果表明：菏泽市的高温灾害高风险区主要分布在东明县、曹县和成武县；巨野县和单县为低风险区，其他县区为中等风险区。这就为菏泽市高温灾害的防御提供了科技支撑和理论支持。

High Temperature Disaster: Risk Assessment and Zoning Based on GIS in Heze

The paper aims to study the distribution of high temperature disaster in different counties of Heze. According to temperature data from meteorological stations of 8 counties and 1 district in Heze during 1970- 2014, the authors selected days whose temperature was greater than 35℃ and the annual extreme highest temperature to analyze the basic characteristics of high temperature weather. Risk index method, expert scoring method, analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive weighted score method were used. Based on full consideration of the risk of hazards, disaster environmental sensitivity, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation, the disaster risk distribution maps of Heze were obtained combined with GIS system. The results showed that: Dongming County, Cao County and Chengwu County were high risk area of high temperature; Juye County and Shan County were low risk area, and other counties were medium risk area. This research can provide theoretical support for prevention and mitigation of high temperature disaster in Heze.